Top Forex Movers Over Last Month

The theme of the last month in forex has been a stronger dollar despite the US government shutdown, with multiple potential catalysts to inject volatility in key pairs over the coming weeks.

Biggest Major Forex Movers in the Last 30 Days:

• USDJPY + 2.25%
• USDCHF +1.81%
• GBPUSD - 3.00%
• NZDUSD - 3.11%

The Dollar Keeps Its Crown

At the start of the summer, the consensus seemed to be to "sell American" as analysts predicted a slowing US economy due to tariffs. Despite further turmoil from the US government shutdown, sentiment appears to have reversed, as the . The shutdown means that official GDP figures for Q3 have not been released, but the Fed's GDPNow tracker recently increased its projections for quarterly growth to 4.0% from 3.9% a week earlier. This compares to 3.8% annual growth in the second quarter. ADP payrolls have also outperformed, contributing to, with future markets pricing in just over a 60% chance of easing, down from over 80% just a couple of weeks ago. The strength in the dollar provides a backdrop to the larger moves in major currency pairs.

Dovish BOJ Weighs on USDJPY

Besides dollar strength, the USDJPY was supported by weakness in the yen, amid the election of a new Prime Minister who supports fiscal expansion. The BOJ refrained from raising rates during its most recent meeting, and inflation underperformed expectations. for the second time this year at the December meeting.

USDCHF Hurt By Gold

Gold after more than two months of near-steady rises. Analysts attribute the move mostly to technical reasons, as traders booked profits ahead of risk events and after gold had the best performance in decades. After rising as high as $4,000 per ounce, the yellow metal has recently been below $4,000, which has weighed on the Swiss franc, given its backing in gold. The Swiss economy has continued to underperform in line with its neighbours and its largest trade partner, the EU, which means the domestic situation was unable to offset the drop in gold prices.

Pound Slides Ahead of Budget

The sell-off of pound-denominated assets continued through October, as investors worry that the The move is understood to weigh on economic growth, which has been nil so far this quarter. Rising expectations that the BOE will take a more dovish stance amid weaker jobs performance, which has also weighed on sterling. Traders remain reluctant to support the pound ahead of the Autumn Budget, which will be published on November 26.

NZDUSD Weighed by Economy

The kiwi was the worst-performing among the majors against the greenback. Sluggish growth in the economy, which may force the RBNZ to stay in easing mode through the early part of next year, is the primary catalyst. in early October, surprising the market and sparking concerns that the internal situation was worse than expected.